Prediction
12%
Lech Poznań (home)
25%
Draw
63%
Sunderland (away)
Model favorite
Expected goals
1.03 — 1.51
Over 2.5 goals: 47%
Both teams to score: 50%
Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Lech Poznań | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | — | 1.57 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | — | 2.31 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 0 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 7 | 4 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | — | 11.6 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 0 | 2 |
What could go against this prediction
The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 65.0% of the time.
no head-to-head data available
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Lech Poznań
- injured Alex Douglas return: Late November 2026
- injured Ali Gholizadeh return: Mid January 2027
- injured Allahyar Sayyadmanesh return: Early November 2026
- injured João Moutinho return: Early February 2027
- injured Robert Gumny return: doubtful
- injured Wojciech Mońka return: Early November 2026
Sunderland
- injured Brian Brobbey return: doubtful
- injured Daniel Ballard return: Late October 2026
- injured Romaine Mundle return: Early January 2027
- injured Thomas Meunier return: Late October 2026
- injured Wilson Isidor return: doubtful
Ask AI about this match
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
How predictions are made
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage
Model probabilities:
available
Recent xG form:
available
Injuries & suspensions:
available
Head to head:
unavailable
Pressing baseline:
available
Season context:
available