Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Liverpool | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 1.56 | 1.8 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.17 | 1.28 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 7 | 8 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 9.2 | 9.7 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 2 | 2 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 0 | 284 |
What the data says
Liverpool vs Arsenal: what the data says
Home last five: 2.00 points, 1.23 xG for, 0.98 against per game. Away: 2.40 / 1.85 / 1.31.
What is worth noting before kickoff?
What could go against this prediction
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Liverpool
- injured Conor Bradley return: Early January 2027
- injured Dominik Szoboszlai return: Mid November 2026
- injured Florian Wirtz return: doubtful
- injured Giovanni Leoni return: Late November 2026
- injured Hugo Ekitiké return: Early January 2027
- injured Jeremie Frimpong return: Mid November 2026
- injured Víctor Muñoz return: doubtful
Arsenal
- injured Bukayo Saka return: Early December 2026
- injured Christos Tzolis return: Early November 2026
- injured Piero Hincapié return: doubtful
- injured William Saliba return: Late November 2026
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Liverpool 15 · 17 17 draws · 8 Arsenal
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | Arsenal | 0 - 0 | Liverpool |
| 2025-08-31 | Liverpool | 1 - 0 | Arsenal |
| 2025-05-11 | Liverpool | 2 - 2 | Arsenal |
| 2024-10-27 | Arsenal | 2 - 2 | Liverpool |
| 2024-07-31 | Liverpool | 2 - 1 | Arsenal |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage