No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Málaga | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 0.76 | 1.71 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.93 | 1.28 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 7 | 7 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 15.4 | 13.5 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 2 | 4 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 468 | 418 |
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Málaga
- injured Aarón Ochoa return: Mid November 2026
- injured Diego Murillo return: Early January 2027
- injured Joaquín Muñoz return: Early November 2026
- injured Juan Cruz return: Back in training
- injured Julen Lobete return: Out for season
- injured Pablo Martínez return: Back in training
Real Madrid
- injured Ferland Mendy return: Back in training
- injured Raúl Asencio return: Early January 2027
- injured Rodrygo return: Late December 2026
- injured Thibaut Courtois return: A few days
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Málaga 1 · 8 8 draws · 26 Real Madrid
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Real Madrid | 4:0 | Malaga |
| 2018-04-15 | Malaga | 1:2 | Real Madrid |
| 2017-11-25 | Real Madrid | 3:2 | Malaga |
| 2017-05-21 | Malaga | 0:2 | Real Madrid |
| 2017-01-21 | Real Madrid | 2:1 | Malaga |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage