Prediction
77%
Manchester City (home)
Model favorite
14%
Draw
9%
AEK Athens (away)
Expected goals
2.45 — 0.77
Over 2.5 goals: 62%
Both teams to score: 49%
Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Manchester City | AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 2.17 | — |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.71 | — |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 0 |
| Rest days since last match | 3 | 6 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 8.8 | — |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 2 | 0 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 0 | — |
What could go against this prediction
no head-to-head data available
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Manchester City
- injured Antoine Semenyo return: Mid December 2026
- injured Mateo Kovacic return: doubtful
- injured Matheus Nunes return: doubtful
- injured Nico O'Reilly return: doubtful
AEK Athens
- injured Thomas Strakosha return: doubtful
Ask AI about this match
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
How predictions are made
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage
Model probabilities:
available
Recent xG form:
available
Injuries & suspensions:
available
Head to head:
unavailable
Pressing baseline:
available
Season context:
available