No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Manchester City | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 2.39 | 0.96 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.59 | 1.32 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 4 | 7 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 8.8 | 14.4 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 4 | 2 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 1 | 1 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 1384 | 261 |
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Manchester City
- injured Antoine Semenyo return: Mid December 2026
- injured Matheus Nunes return: doubtful
Chelsea
- injured Emiliano Martínez return: Early November 2026
- injured Emmanuel Emegha return: About a week
- injured Jamie Gittens return: About a week
- injured João Pedro return: doubtful
- injured Pep Chavarría return: About a week
- injured Reece James return: Mid January 2027
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Manchester City 20 · 10 10 draws · 27 Chelsea
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Chelsea | 0:3 | Man City |
| 2026-01-04 | Man City | 1:1 | Chelsea |
| 2025-01-25 | Man City | 3:1 | Chelsea |
| 2024-08-18 | Chelsea | 0:2 | Man City |
| 2024-02-17 | Man City | 1:1 | Chelsea |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage