No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Manchester United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 1.11 | 1.59 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.77 | 1.33 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 5 | 5 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 12.5 | 15.5 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 1 | 1 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 0 | 1383 |
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Manchester United
- injured Benjamin Sesko return: Late October 2026
- injured Kobbie Mainoo return: About a week
- injured Luke Shaw return: A few days
- injured Manuel Ugarte return: Early April 2027
- injured Marcus Rashford return: doubtful
- injured Patrick Dorgu return: Late October 2026
Aston Villa
- injured Aaron Wan-Bissaka return: Mid November 2026
- injured Amadou Onana return: Mid April 2027
- injured Matteo Ruggeri return: Mid December 2026
- injured Modou Kéba Cissé return: Back in training
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Manchester United 42 · 13 13 draws · 5 Aston Villa
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Man United | 3:1 | Aston Villa |
| 2025-12-21 | Aston Villa | 2:1 | Man United |
| 2025-05-25 | Man United | 2:0 | Aston Villa |
| 2024-10-06 | Aston Villa | 0:0 | Man United |
| 2024-02-11 | Aston Villa | 1:2 | Man United |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage