UEFA Europa League Round 2 2026-10-15 · 19:00 UTC finished
Marseille (home)
VS Stade Velodrome, Marseille
Olympiacos (away)
Prediction
41% Marseille (home)
22% Draw
37% Olympiacos (away)
Expected goals 1.4 — 1.33 Over 2.5 goals: 51% Both teams to score: 56%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Marseille Olympiacos
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 1.45—
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 2.46—
Sample size (matches with xG data) 50
Rest days since last match 429
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) 11.4 —
Matches in the last 7 days 10
Matches in the next 7 days 31
Travel to this match (km) 568—

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability for this match is below 50% (backtest hit rate for this band is 42.7%%).

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Marseille

  • injured Derek Cornelius return: Early January 2027
  • injured Pierre-Emile Højbjerg return: A few weeks

Olympiacos

No reported absentees.

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Marseille 2 · 0 0 draws · 2 Olympiacos

DateHome ScoreAway
2020-12-01Marseille 2:1Olympiacos
2020-10-21Olympiacos 1:0Marseille
2011-11-23Marseille 0:1Olympiacos
2011-09-13Olympiacos 0:1Marseille
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: available Season context: available