Eredivisie Round 9 2026-10-18 · 18:00 UTC finished
Prediction
56% NEC Nijmegen (home) Model favorite
25% Draw
18% Fortuna Sittard (away)
Expected goals 1.96 — 1.16 Over 2.5 goals: 60% Both teams to score: 59%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric NEC Nijmegen Fortuna Sittard
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) ——
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) ——
Sample size (matches with xG data) 00
Rest days since last match 38
Matches in the last 7 days 21
Matches in the next 7 days 32
Travel to this match (km) 092

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 53.4% of the time.
no season pressing baseline available for these teams
recent form lacks xG samples, so attack/defence form is not measurable

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

NEC Nijmegen

  • injured Bram Nuytinck return: Late November 2026
  • injured Emre Mor return: Day to day
  • injured Philippe Sandler return: Early November 2026

Fortuna Sittard

  • injured Iván Márquez return: Day to day
  • injured Yassin Oukili return: Mid October 2026

Head to head

All-time (per our source): NEC Nijmegen 10 · 4 4 draws · 4 Fortuna Sittard

DateHome ScoreAway
2026-02-28NEC Nijmegen 2 - 3Fortuna Sittard
2025-08-31Fortuna Sittard 3 - 2NEC Nijmegen
2025-01-19NEC Nijmegen 4 - 1Fortuna Sittard
2024-08-31Fortuna Sittard 0 - 3NEC Nijmegen
2024-04-02Fortuna Sittard 1 - 1NEC Nijmegen
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: unavailable Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: unavailable Season context: available