Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Newcastle United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 1.15 | 1.13 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.78 | 1.74 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 5 | 3 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 9.6 | 15.5 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 1 | 2 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 281 | 275 |
What could go against this prediction
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Newcastle United
- injured Anthony Elanga return: Mid October 2026
- injured Ewen Jaouen return: Early December 2026
- injured Jacob Ramsey return: Late October 2026
- injured Valentino Livramento return: Early November 2026
Aston Villa
- injured Amadou Onana return: Mid April 2027
- injured George Hemmings return: doubtful
- injured Ian Maatsen return: Late October 2026
- injured Matteo Ruggeri return: Late October 2026
- injured Modou Kéba Cissé return: doubtful
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Newcastle United 13 · 10 10 draws · 7 Aston Villa
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Aston Villa | 1 - 3 | Newcastle United |
| 2026-01-25 | Newcastle United | 0 - 2 | Aston Villa |
| 2025-08-16 | Aston Villa | 0 - 0 | Newcastle United |
| 2025-04-19 | Aston Villa | 4 - 1 | Newcastle United |
| 2024-12-26 | Newcastle United | 3 - 0 | Aston Villa |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage