No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 1.66 | 1.62 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.57 | 1.11 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 14 | 14 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 8.8 | 10.0 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 2 | 2 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 0 | 470 |
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Rayo Vallecano
- injured Andrei Ratiu return: Early November 2026
- injured Augusto Batalla return: Early January 2027
- injured Dani Cárdenas return: A few days
- injured Luiz Felipe return: Out for season
- injured Randy Nteka return: Early November 2026
- injured Sergio Camello return: doubtful
Atletico Madrid
- injured Cristian Romero return: About 1-2 weeks
- injured Johnny Cardoso return: About 1-2 weeks
- injured Koke return: Back in training
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Rayo Vallecano 5 · 6 6 draws · 21 Atletico Madrid
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Vallecano | 3:0 | Ath Madrid |
| 2025-09-24 | Ath Madrid | 3:2 | Vallecano |
| 2025-04-24 | Ath Madrid | 3:0 | Vallecano |
| 2024-09-22 | Vallecano | 1:1 | Ath Madrid |
| 2024-01-31 | Ath Madrid | 2:1 | Vallecano |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage