Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 1.66 | 1.04 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.57 | 0.78 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 7 | 6 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 8.8 | 14.1 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 1 | 2 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 0 | 470 |
What the data says
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo: what the data says
Home last five: 1.40 points, 1.33 xG for, 1.76 against per game. Away: 1.80 / 1.26 / 0.93.
What is worth noting before kickoff?
What could go against this prediction
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Rayo Vallecano
- injured Andrei Ratiu return: Early November 2026
- injured Augusto Batalla return: Early January 2027
- injured Dani Cárdenas return: A few days
- injured Luiz Felipe return: Out for season
- injured Randy Nteka return: Early November 2026
- injured Sergio Camello return: doubtful
- suspended Pathé Ciss return: Late October 2026
Celta Vigo
- injured Álvaro Núñez return: Late November 2026
- injured Borja Iglesias return: Late November 2026
- injured Carl Starfelt return: Early November 2026
- injured Jones El-Abdellaoui return: Mid January 2027
- injured Miguel Román return: Early November 2026
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Rayo Vallecano 9 · 7 7 draws · 6 Celta Vigo
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Celta Vigo | 3 - 0 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 2025-09-21 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 - 1 | Celta Vigo |
| 2025-05-18 | Celta Vigo | 1 - 2 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 2025-01-10 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 - 1 | Celta Vigo |
| 2024-03-31 | Celta Vigo | 0 - 0 | Rayo Vallecano |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage