No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 2.04 | 2.1 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 2.2 | 0.95 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 7 | 7 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 14.1 | 10.0 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 3 | 3 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 0 | 0 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 385 | 340 |
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
RB Leipzig
- injured Assan Ouédraogo return: Late December 2026
- injured Christopher Nkunku return: doubtful
- injured Marc Guiu return: A few weeks
Borussia Dortmund
- injured Emre Can return: Mid November 2026
- injured Giannis Konstantelias return: Late May 2027
- injured Justin Lerma return: About 1-2 weeks
- injured Kauã Prates return: About 1-2 weeks
- injured Konstantinos Karetsas return: Early November 2026
Head to head
All-time (per our source): RB Leipzig 9 · 4 4 draws · 9 Borussia Dortmund
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | RB Leipzig | 2:2 | Dortmund |
| 2025-10-04 | Dortmund | 1:1 | RB Leipzig |
| 2025-03-15 | RB Leipzig | 2:0 | Dortmund |
| 2024-11-02 | Dortmund | 2:1 | RB Leipzig |
| 2024-04-27 | RB Leipzig | 4:1 | Dortmund |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage