Bundesliga Round 5 2026-10-10 · 16:30 UTC finished
Prediction
64% RB Leipzig (home) Model favorite
19% Draw
17% Eintracht Frankfurt (away)
Expected goals 2.1 — 1.21 Over 2.5 goals: 64% Both teams to score: 62%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric RB Leipzig Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 2.211.91
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 1.351.7
Sample size (matches with xG data) 43
Rest days since last match 2021
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) 14.1 12.8
Matches in the last 7 days 00
Matches in the next 7 days 42
Travel to this match (km) 374297

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 65.0% of the time.

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

RB Leipzig

  • injured Assan Ouédraogo return: Late December 2026
  • injured Christoph Baumgartner return: Mid October 2026
  • injured Marc Guiu return: A few weeks

Eintracht Frankfurt

  • injured Jeremiaha Maluze return: Early October 2026
  • injured Jessic Ngankam return: Mid October 2026
  • injured Malik Pimpong return: Late October 2026

Head to head

All-time (per our source): RB Leipzig 9 · 8 8 draws · 6 Eintracht Frankfurt

DateHome ScoreAway
2026-04-18Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 3RB Leipzig
2025-12-06RB Leipzig 6 - 0Eintracht Frankfurt
2025-04-26Eintracht Frankfurt 4 - 0RB Leipzig
2024-12-15RB Leipzig 2 - 1Eintracht Frankfurt
2024-12-04RB Leipzig 3 - 0Eintracht Frankfurt
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: available Season context: available