No model probabilities for this match yet.
Predictions are generated as match data becomes available — check another date or come back later.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 2.04 | 2.28 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 2.2 | 1.41 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 6 | 7 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 14.1 | 12.9 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 3 | 2 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 492 | 328 |
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
RB Leipzig
- injured Assan Ouédraogo return: Late December 2026
- injured Christopher Nkunku return: doubtful
- injured Marc Guiu return: A few weeks
Mainz 05
- injured Dominik Kohr return: Early January 2027
- injured Otto Ruoppi return: Early November 2026
- injured Robin Zentner return: A few weeks
- injured Silas Katompa Mvumpa return: Early January 2027
Head to head
All-time (per our source): RB Leipzig 9 · 4 4 draws · 7 Mainz 05
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | RB Leipzig | 1:2 | Mainz |
| 2025-09-13 | Mainz | 0:1 | RB Leipzig |
| 2025-03-01 | RB Leipzig | 1:2 | Mainz |
| 2024-10-19 | Mainz | 0:2 | RB Leipzig |
| 2024-03-30 | RB Leipzig | 0:0 | Mainz |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
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