La Liga Round 9 2026-10-17 · 16:30 UTC finished
Real Betis (home)
VS Benito Villamarin, Seville
Barcelona (away)
Prediction
20% Real Betis (home)
22% Draw
58% Barcelona (away) Model favorite
Expected goals 1.18 — 1.93 Over 2.5 goals: 60% Both teams to score: 59%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Real Betis Barcelona
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 2.083.67
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 1.891.28
Sample size (matches with xG data) 55
Rest days since last match 34
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) 15.8 6.6
Matches in the last 7 days 22
Matches in the next 7 days 22
Travel to this match (km) 0827

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 53.4% of the time.

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Real Betis

  • injured Aitor Ruibal return: Back in training
  • injured Junior Firpo return: Late October 2026

Barcelona

  • injured Andreas Christensen return: Late October 2026
  • injured Roony Bardghji return: Late February 2027

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Real Betis 3 · 5 5 draws · 24 Barcelona

DateHome ScoreAway
2026-05-17Barcelona 3 - 1Real Betis
2025-12-06Real Betis 3 - 5Barcelona
2025-04-05Barcelona 1 - 1Real Betis
2025-01-15Barcelona 5 - 1Real Betis
2024-12-07Real Betis 2 - 2Barcelona
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: available Season context: available