La Liga Round 9 2026-10-18 · 19:00 UTC finished
Real Madrid (home)
VS Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Sevilla (away)
Prediction
79% Real Madrid (home) Model favorite
14% Draw
7% Sevilla (away)
Expected goals 2.45 — 0.83 Over 2.5 goals: 64% Both teams to score: 52%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Real Madrid Sevilla
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 2.191.12
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 1.180.87
Sample size (matches with xG data) 55
Rest days since last match 46
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) 13.5 12.3
Matches in the last 7 days 21
Matches in the next 7 days 32
Travel to this match (km) 1359303

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Real Madrid

  • injured Ferland Mendy return: Back in training
  • injured Raúl Asencio return: Early January 2027
  • injured Rodrygo return: Late December 2026
  • suspended Vinícius Júnior return: Early November 2026

Sevilla

  • injured Giorgi Kochorashvili return: Back in training
  • injured Jon Guridi return: Back in training
  • injured Marcão return: Late October 2026
  • injured Miguel Sierra return: Early December 2026
  • suspended Isaac Romero return: Mid October 2026

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Real Madrid 29 · 3 3 draws · 6 Sevilla

DateHome ScoreAway
2026-05-17Sevilla 0 - 1Real Madrid
2025-12-20Real Madrid 2 - 0Sevilla
2025-05-18Sevilla 0 - 2Real Madrid
2024-12-22Real Madrid 4 - 2Sevilla
2024-02-25Real Madrid 1 - 0Sevilla
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: available Season context: available