Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Real Madrid | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 2.52 | 2.43 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.2 | 1.28 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 5 |
| Rest days since last match | 20 | 20 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 13.5 | 9.7 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 3 | 4 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 8 | 310 |
What could go against this prediction
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Real Madrid
- injured Éder Militao return: Late October 2026
- injured Ferland Mendy return: Back in training
- injured Raúl Asencio return: Early January 2027
- injured Rodrygo return: Late December 2026
- suspended Dean Huijsen return: Early October 2026
Villarreal
- injured Nicolas Pépé return: Late October 2026
- injured Tajon Buchanan return: Early November 2026
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Real Madrid 16 · 11 11 draws · 4 Villarreal
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Villarreal | 0 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| 2025-10-04 | Real Madrid | 3 - 1 | Villarreal |
| 2025-03-15 | Villarreal | 1 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| 2024-10-05 | Real Madrid | 2 - 0 | Villarreal |
| 2024-05-19 | Villarreal | 4 - 4 | Real Madrid |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage