La Liga Round 8 2026-10-11 · 14:15 UTC finished
Prediction
55% Real Sociedad (home) Model favorite
24% Draw
22% Deportivo A Coruña (away)
Expected goals 1.66 — 1.11 Over 2.5 goals: 52% Both teams to score: 54%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Real Sociedad Deportivo A Coruña
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 1.31.11
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 1.431.03
Sample size (matches with xG data) 55
Rest days since last match 2121
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) 12.2 14.0
Matches in the last 7 days 00
Matches in the next 7 days 32
Travel to this match (km) 446521

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 53.4% of the time.

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Real Sociedad

  • injured Álvaro Odriozola return: Early November 2026
  • injured Jon Aramburu return: Late October 2026
  • suspended Orri Óskarsson return: Mid October 2026

Deportivo A Coruña

  • injured Marc Casadó return: Late October 2026
  • injured Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang return: Mid November 2026
  • injured Zakaria Eddahchouri return: Early November 2026

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Real Sociedad 5 · 5 5 draws · 2 Deportivo A Coruña

DateHome ScoreAway
2018-02-02Real Sociedad 5 - 0Deportivo A Coruña
2017-09-10Deportivo A Coruña 2 - 4Real Sociedad
2017-04-23Real Sociedad 1 - 0Deportivo A Coruña
2016-12-05Deportivo A Coruña 5 - 1Real Sociedad
2016-01-16Real Sociedad 1 - 1Deportivo A Coruña
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: available Season context: available