Ligue 1 Round 6 2026-10-11 · 15:15 UTC finished
Rennes (home)
VS Roazhon Park, Rennes
Auxerre (away)
Prediction
53% Rennes (home) Model favorite
29% Draw
18% Auxerre (away)
Expected goals 1.84 — 1.08 Over 2.5 goals: 56% Both teams to score: 56%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Rennes Auxerre
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 1.851.41
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 2.062.05
Sample size (matches with xG data) 45
Rest days since last match 2221
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) 10.3 12.7
Matches in the last 7 days 00
Matches in the next 7 days 31
Travel to this match (km) 571396

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 53.4% of the time.

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Rennes

No reported absentees.

Auxerre

  • injured Assane Dioussé return: Early May 2027
  • injured Bryan Okoh return: Late January 2027
  • injured Marvin Senaya return: Mid November 2026
  • injured Rayan Mandengue return: Late October 2026
  • injured Sékou Fofana return: Late October 2026
  • injured Telli Siwe return: Mid November 2026
  • suspended Christ Makosso return: Mid October 2026

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Rennes 4 · 4 4 draws · 3 Auxerre

DateHome ScoreAway
2026-02-22Auxerre 0 - 3Rennes
2025-10-19Rennes 2 - 2Auxerre
2025-04-06Rennes 0 - 1Auxerre
2024-11-03Auxerre 4 - 0Rennes
2023-03-11Auxerre 0 - 0Rennes
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: available Season context: available