Serie A Round 7 2026-10-17 · 18:45 UTC finished
Roma (home)
VS Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Genoa (away)
Prediction
76% Roma (home) Model favorite
16% Draw
8% Genoa (away)
Expected goals 2.15 — 0.75 Over 2.5 goals: 55% Both teams to score: 46%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Roma Genoa
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 2.451.05
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 0.811.34
Sample size (matches with xG data) 55
Rest days since last match 37
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) 9.1 13.2
Matches in the last 7 days 21
Matches in the next 7 days 42
Travel to this match (km) 0396

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Roma

  • injured Bryan Cristante return: Late October 2026
  • injured Manu Koné return: Mid November 2026
  • injured Mile Svilar return: Early November 2026
  • injured Paulo Dybala return: doubtful
  • suspended Donyell Malen return: Mid October 2026

Genoa

  • injured Djibril Sow return: Late October 2026
  • injured Elias Havel return: Late October 2026
  • injured Franz-Ethan Meichtry return: Late October 2026
  • injured Lorenzo Colombo return: Early November 2026
  • injured Lorenzo Venturino return: Back in training

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Roma 21 · 5 5 draws · 5 Genoa

DateHome ScoreAway
2026-03-08Genoa 2 - 1Roma
2025-12-29Roma 3 - 1Genoa
2025-01-17Roma 3 - 1Genoa
2024-09-15Genoa 1 - 1Roma
2024-05-19Roma 1 - 0Genoa
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: available Season context: available