UEFA Europa League Round 2 2026-10-15 · 16:45 UTC finished
Prediction
67% Salzburg (home) Model favorite
19% Draw
14% AC Milan (away)
Expected goals 1.91 — 0.85 Over 2.5 goals: 52% Both teams to score: 49%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Salzburg AC Milan
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) —1.39
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) —1.16
Sample size (matches with xG data) 05
Rest days since last match 284
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) — 13.9
Matches in the last 7 days 01
Matches in the next 7 days 14

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 65.0% of the time.
no head-to-head data available

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Salzburg

No reported absentees.

AC Milan

  • injured Alexis Saelemaekers return: Mid January 2027
  • injured Matteo Gabbia return: Late October 2026
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: unavailable Pressing baseline: available Season context: available