Liga Portugal Round 9 2026-10-26 · 18:45 UTC scheduled
Santa Clara (home)
VS Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Migue
Benfica (away)
Prediction
14% Santa Clara (home)
21% Draw
65% Benfica (away) Model favorite
Expected goals 0.9 — 1.88 Over 2.5 goals: 53% Both teams to score: 50%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Santa Clara Benfica
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) —3.02
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) —0.83
Sample size (matches with xG data) 01
Rest days since last match 164
Matches in the last 7 days 02
Matches in the next 7 days 23
Travel to this match (km) 14601438

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 65.0% of the time.
no season pressing baseline available for these teams

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Santa Clara

  • injured MT return: Day to day

Benfica

  • injured Daniel Banjaqui return: Early November 2026
  • injured Enzo Barrenechea return: Early November 2026
  • injured Jakub Kamiński return: Day to day

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Santa Clara 1 · 2 2 draws · 13 Benfica

DateHome ScoreAway
2026-02-13Santa Clara 1 - 2Benfica
2025-09-12Benfica 1 - 1Santa Clara
2025-02-15Santa Clara 0 - 1Benfica
2024-10-30Benfica 3 - 0Santa Clara
2024-09-14Benfica 4 - 1Santa Clara
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: unavailable Season context: available