Eredivisie Round 9 2026-10-16 · 18:00 UTC finished
SC Heerenveen (home)
VS Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
Excelsior (away)
Prediction
49% SC Heerenveen (home) Model favorite
26% Draw
26% Excelsior (away)
Expected goals 1.75 — 1.24 Over 2.5 goals: 57% Both teams to score: 59%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric SC Heerenveen Excelsior
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) ——
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) ——
Sample size (matches with xG data) 00
Rest days since last match 75
Matches in the last 7 days 11
Matches in the next 7 days 11
Travel to this match (km) 172150

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability for this match is below 50% (backtest hit rate for this band is 42.7%%).
no season pressing baseline available for these teams
recent form lacks xG samples, so attack/defence form is not measurable

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

SC Heerenveen

  • injured Dirk Proper return: Day to day

Excelsior

No reported absentees.

Head to head

All-time (per our source): SC Heerenveen 13 · 4 4 draws · 7 Excelsior

DateHome ScoreAway
2026-03-07Excelsior 1 - 2SC Heerenveen
2025-10-04SC Heerenveen 2 - 1Excelsior
2024-01-19Excelsior 3 - 0SC Heerenveen
2023-09-23SC Heerenveen 0 - 3Excelsior
2023-05-13SC Heerenveen 0 - 0Excelsior
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: unavailable Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: unavailable Season context: available