Bundesliga Round 4 2026-09-20 · 15:30 UTC finished
Schalke 04 (home)
VS Veltins-Arena, Gelsenkirchen
Elversberg (away)
Prediction
35% Schalke 04 (home)
33% Draw
32% Elversberg (away)
Expected goals 1.49 — 1.52 Over 2.5 goals: 58% Both teams to score: 60%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Schalke 04 Elversberg
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 1.611.51
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 2.542.36
Sample size (matches with xG data) 33
Rest days since last match 97
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) 19.4 11.7
Matches in the last 7 days 11
Matches in the next 7 days 00
Travel to this match (km) 456249

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability for this match is below 50% (backtest hit rate for this band is 39.0%%).

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Schalke 04

  • injured Adrian Gantenbein return: Late September 2026
  • injured Ayman Gülasi return: Late December 2026
  • injured Bryan Lasme return: Late September 2026
  • injured Dejan Ljubičić return: Early October 2026

Elversberg

  • injured Tom Zimmerschied return: A few weeks

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Schalke 04 3 · 1 1 draws · 2 Elversberg

DateHome ScoreAway
2026-04-12Elversberg 1 - 2Schalke 04
2025-11-08Schalke 04 1 - 0Elversberg
2025-05-18Schalke 04 1 - 2Elversberg
2024-12-20Elversberg 1 - 4Schalke 04
2024-04-19Elversberg 1 - 1Schalke 04
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: available Season context: available