Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Schalke 04 | Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 1.23 | 2.25 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.95 | 1.16 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 5 | 4 |
| Rest days since last match | 6 | 7 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 19.4 | 12.9 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 1 | 2 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 397 | 193 |
What could go against this prediction
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Schalke 04
- injured Ayman Gülasi return: Late December 2026
- injured Bryan Lasme return: Mid October 2026
- injured Dejan Ljubičić return: Late October 2026
- injured Moussa Sylla return: Early November 2026
Mainz 05
- injured Dominik Kohr return: Early January 2027
- injured Otto Ruoppi return: Early November 2026
- injured Robin Zentner return: A few weeks
- injured Silas Katompa Mvumpa return: Early January 2027
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Schalke 04 14 · 6 6 draws · 5 Mainz 05
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-05 | Mainz 05 | 2 - 3 | Schalke 04 |
| 2022-11-09 | Schalke 04 | 1 - 0 | Mainz 05 |
| 2021-03-05 | Schalke 04 | 0 - 0 | Mainz 05 |
| 2020-11-07 | Mainz 05 | 2 - 2 | Schalke 04 |
| 2020-02-16 | Mainz 05 | 0 - 0 | Schalke 04 |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage