UEFA Champions League Round 4 2026-11-03 · 17:45 UTC scheduled
Prediction
33% Shakhtar Donetsk (home)
22% Draw
45% Sporting CP (away)
Expected goals 1.39 — 1.58 Over 2.5 goals: 57% Both teams to score: 60%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Shakhtar Donetsk Sporting CP
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 0.62.61
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 1.050.96
Sample size (matches with xG data) 12
Rest days since last match 134
Matches in the last 7 days 13
Matches in the next 7 days 01

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability for this match is below 50% (backtest hit rate for this band is 42.7%%).
no head-to-head data available
no season pressing baseline available for these teams

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Shakhtar Donetsk

No reported absentees.

Sporting CP

  • injured Nuno Santos return: Day to day
  • injured Rodrigo Zalazar return: Early November 2026
  • injured Zeno Debast return: Early November 2026
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: unavailable Pressing baseline: unavailable Season context: available