Eredivisie Round 9 2026-10-17 · 19:00 UTC finished
Sparta Rotterdam (home)
VS Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
Willem II (away)
Prediction
61% Sparta Rotterdam (home) Model favorite
23% Draw
16% Willem II (away)
Expected goals 1.91 — 1.02 Over 2.5 goals: 56% Both teams to score: 55%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Sparta Rotterdam Willem II
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) ——
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) ——
Sample size (matches with xG data) 00
Rest days since last match 76
Matches in the last 7 days 11
Matches in the next 7 days 12
Travel to this match (km) 12552

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 65.0% of the time.
no season pressing baseline available for these teams
recent form lacks xG samples, so attack/defence form is not measurable

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Sparta Rotterdam

  • injured Shunsuke Mito return: A few days

Willem II

  • injured Amine Lachkar return: Day to day
  • injured Armin Culum return: Day to day
  • injured Justin Hoogma return: Late October 2027
  • injured Thomas Didillon-Hödl return: doubtful

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Sparta Rotterdam 11 · 3 3 draws · 9 Willem II

DateHome ScoreAway
2025-12-18Willem II 1 - 5Sparta Rotterdam
2025-03-02Sparta Rotterdam 4 - 0Willem II
2024-08-31Willem II 1 - 2Sparta Rotterdam
2022-07-20Willem II 0 - 2Sparta Rotterdam
2022-02-13Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 0Willem II
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: unavailable Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: unavailable Season context: available