Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.
Why — recent form
"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.
| Metric | Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) | 1.33 | 1.93 |
| Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) | 1.83 | 1.07 |
| Sample size (matches with xG data) | 4 | 4 |
| Rest days since last match | 7 | 3 |
| Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) | 16.9 | 10.0 |
| Matches in the last 7 days | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in the next 7 days | 1 | 2 |
| Travel to this match (km) | 0 | 432 |
What could go against this prediction
Injuries & suspensions
Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.
Union Berlin
- injured Andrej Ilić return: Mid October 2026
- injured Andrik Markgraf return: Early March 2027
- injured Josip Juranović return: About 1-2 weeks
- injured Marvin Friedrich return: Late October 2026
- injured Stanley N'Soki return: Late October 2026
Borussia Dortmund
- injured Emre Can return: Mid November 2026
- injured Giannis Konstantelias return: Late May 2027
- injured Justin Lerma return: About 1-2 weeks
Head to head
All-time (per our source): Union Berlin 4 · 1 1 draws · 12 Borussia Dortmund
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Union Berlin | 0 - 3 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2025-08-31 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 - 0 | Union Berlin |
| 2025-02-22 | Borussia Dortmund | 6 - 0 | Union Berlin |
| 2024-10-05 | Union Berlin | 2 - 1 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2024-03-02 | Union Berlin | 0 - 2 | Borussia Dortmund |
Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.
Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.
Data coverage