Liga Portugal Round 9 2026-10-23 · 19:45 UTC finished
Vitória de Guimarães (home)
VS Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
Marítimo (away)
Prediction
56% Vitória de Guimarães (home) Model favorite
24% Draw
20% Marítimo (away)
Expected goals 1.63 — 1.03 Over 2.5 goals: 50% Both teams to score: 52%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Vitória de Guimarães Marítimo
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) ——
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) ——
Sample size (matches with xG data) 00
Rest days since last match 1213
Matches in the last 7 days 11
Matches in the next 7 days 11
Travel to this match (km) 3091241

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 53.4% of the time.
no season pressing baseline available for these teams
recent form lacks xG samples, so attack/defence form is not measurable

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Vitória de Guimarães

  • injured Francisco Dias return: Mid November 2026
  • injured Gui return: Day to day
  • injured Juan Diego Castillo return: Early November 2026
  • injured Thiago Balieiro return: Day to day

Marítimo

  • injured Yellu Santiago return: Day to day

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Vitória de Guimarães 14 · 6 6 draws · 9 Marítimo

DateHome ScoreAway
2023-04-29Marítimo 1 - 2Vitória de Guimarães
2022-11-13Vitória de Guimarães 1 - 0Marítimo
2022-03-13Marítimo 0 - 1Vitória de Guimarães
2021-10-22Vitória de Guimarães 2 - 1Marítimo
2021-05-16Marítimo 0 - 0Vitória de Guimarães
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: unavailable Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: unavailable Season context: available