Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.25 to 1.50 (+500%); the previous-season baseline is 1.15; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.
Primary driver
Over the last 4 matches, points per game moved 0.25 → 1.50; goal difference per game -3.25 → 0.25. Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.17 → 0.08; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +1.25 per game.
Current season: last 4 vs previous 4; baseline: previous season
Result layer
| Metric | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.25 | 1.5 | +1.25 | +500.0% |
| Expected points per game | 0.55 | 1.19 | +0.65 | +118.6% |
| Goal difference per game | -3.25 | 0.25 | +3.5 | +107.7% |
| Goals conceded per game | 4.25 | 0.5 | -3.75 | -88.2% |
| xGA per game | 3.21 | 1.19 | -2.03 | -63.0% |
| Goals per game | 1.0 | 0.75 | -0.25 | -25.0% |
| xG per game | 1.23 | 0.95 | -0.28 | -22.7% |
Before → after at the result level; all values are per-game averages. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Attack: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals moved -0.15 → -0.20; finishing adds -0.05 goals per game.
|
-0.15 → -0.2
goals above expected per game
|
-33.9% | -0.05 | 9% |
|
Shot volume
Shots per game moved 14.67 → 10.25; at last window's output per shot this adds -0.45 goals per game.
|
14.67 → 10.25
shots per game
|
-30.1% | -0.45 | 77% |
|
Shot quality
Expected goals per shot moved 0.10 → 0.09; at the current shot volume this adds -0.09 goals per game.
|
0.1 → 0.09
expected goals per shot
|
-8.3% | -0.09 | 15% |
Decomposition uses 4/4 current and 3/4 comparison matches with shot data. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Defense: where the change came from
| Factor | Previous → current | Change % | Impact on goal difference | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalkeeping & opponent finishing
Expected goals conceded minus goals conceded moved -0.42 → +0.69; goalkeeping and opponent finishing add +1.11 goals of goal difference per game. Split: goalkeeping +0.74, opponent on-target quality +0.37.
|
-0.42 → 0.69
expected goals minus goals conceded per game
|
+262.5% | +1.11 | 39% |
|
Shot quality faced
Expected goals per shot faced moved 0.17 → 0.08; at the current volume this changes goal difference by +1.25 per game.
|
0.17 → 0.08
expected goals per shot faced
|
-51.2% | +1.25 | 44% |
|
Shots faced
Shots faced per game moved 17.33 → 14.50; at last window's concession rate this changes goal difference by +0.48 per game.
|
17.33 → 14.5
shots faced per game
|
-16.3% | +0.48 | 17% |
Decomposition uses 4/4 current and 3/4 comparison matches with shot data. All impacts are from the team's goal-difference perspective (positive = better). Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Context factors
| Factor | Previous | Recent | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Opponent strength
Opponents' season goal difference per game (expected goals for minus against); positive means stronger. This is an easier schedule. Coverage 4/4 vs 4/4.
|
0.43 | -0.12 | -0.55 | -127.8% |
|
Big chances
Big chances created per game.
|
2.33 | 0.75 | -1.58 | -67.9% |
|
Deep completions
Deep completions per game (attacking progression).
|
5.25 | 2.75 | -2.5 | -47.6% |
|
Set-piece threat
Set-piece expected goals per game. It accounts for +137% of the change in attacking expected goals.
|
0.83 | 0.45 | -0.38 | -45.9% |
|
Possession
Average possession share.
|
50.33 | 38.0 | -12.33 | -24.5% |
|
Deep completions allowed
Deep completions allowed per game.
|
13.75 | 10.75 | -3.0 | -21.8% |
|
Open-play threat
Open-play expected goals per game (regular play, fast breaks, individual play).
|
0.56 | 0.49 | -0.07 | -12.7% |
|
Pressing intensity
Lower is more aggressive. This window: little change in pressing.
|
18.5 | 19.5 | +1.0 | +5.4% |
|
Red cards
Red cards change game state; treat as context.
|
0.0 | 0.25 | +0.25 | — |
Context only — not added into the primary-driver calculation, to avoid double counting. Change % = change ÷ |previous|; shown as — when the previous value is 0. Rows are ordered by absolute change %.
Data gaps
- Current-season sample is only 8 matches; using a 4-match window. Factor shares are unstable at this size.
- Earlier current-season matches were fewer than five, so the baseline uses last season.
- Shot detail covers 4/4 current and 3/4 comparison matches; the decomposition uses only covered matches.
- Post-shot expected goals cover 4/4 current and 3/4 comparison matches; the goalkeeper/opponent-finishing split is omitted when incomplete.
- Running and sprint data are only available for the Premier League; running did not enter this attribution.
- The six additive factors explain goal difference within the shot-data sample; points also depend on draw/win margins, game state and match randomness.
- Injuries, rotation and fixture congestion are not included in the attribution.
The evidence
| Metric | Recent 4 | Previous 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.5 | 0.25 | +500% |
What doesn't move in step
| Metric | Recent 5 | Previous 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG per match | 0.95 | 1.23 | -23% |
| xGA per match | 1.19 | 3.21 | -63% |
| Non-penalty xG per match | 0.95 | 1.23 | -23% |
| Non-penalty xGA per match | 1.19 | 3.03 | -61% |
| Deep completions per match | 2.75 | 5.25 | -48% |
| Deep completions allowed per match | 10.75 | 13.75 | -22% |
| Goals per match | 0.75 | 1.0 | -25% |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 4.25 | -88% |
Possible explanations
- Opponents faced over the last 4 matches average 1.82 xG created this season, versus 2.20 in the previous 4; a softer schedule may be a factor.
- 0.75 goals scored against 0.95 expected over the last 4 (difference -0.20).
Limitations
Based on 8 recent matches (8 with expected-goals data).
- League matches only (246 games analysed); domestic cups and Europe are not included.