Football Insights

What is changing across the big five leagues — each date lists only new or materially updated signals, with the evidence and counter evidence behind every claim.
Daily archive → Player Watch → Insight date · 2026-10-28 Data through 2026-10-28 Showing 13 of 13 ← Previous day
New & updated · 3 All changes · 13
All insights Premier League La Liga Bundesliga Serie A Ligue 1 Player Watch → Team changes Daily player changes Match data
2026-10-28 8 2026-10-27 89 2026-10-23 16 2026-10-22 24 2026-10-21 3 2026-10-20 92

Match data

Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-28

Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain: what the data says

Home last five: 0.20 points, 1.67 xG for, 1.68 against per game. Away: 2.40 / 3.02 / 1.45.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-28

Lille vs Lens: what the data says

Home last five: 1.60 points, 1.59 xG for, 1.16 against per game. Away: 2.00 / 1.46 / 1.38.
Match data Moderate evidence New Ligue 1 2026-10-28

Nice vs Rennes: what the data says

Home last five: 1.80 points, 1.19 xG for, 1.58 against per game. Away: 1.80 / 2.05 / 2.02.
Match data Moderate evidence New Ligue 1 2026-10-28

Lyon vs Angers: what the data says

Home last five: 2.00 points, 1.93 xG for, 1.05 against per game. Away: 1.00 / 1.24 / 2.08.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-28

Marseille vs Toulouse: what the data says

Home last five: 1.80 points, 1.87 xG for, 2.55 against per game. Away: 1.80 / 1.63 / 1.00.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-28

Paris FC vs Monaco: what the data says

Home last five: 1.40 points, 1.23 xG for, 0.97 against per game. Away: 1.20 / 1.18 / 1.18.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-28

Strasbourg vs Auxerre: what the data says

Home last five: 0.20 points, 0.71 xG for, 1.47 against per game. Away: 2.00 / 1.35 / 1.20.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-28

Lorient vs Brest: what the data says

Home last five: 1.60 points, 1.01 xG for, 0.80 against per game. Away: 0.80 / 1.70 / 1.21.
Match data Moderate evidence New Ligue 1 2026-10-28

Toulouse vs Strasbourg: what the data says

Home last five: 1.80 points, 1.63 xG for, 1.00 against per game. Away: 0.20 / 0.71 / 1.47.

Team changes

Results ▲ Limited evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-28

Nice's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.50 to 2.25 (+350%); the previous-season baseline is 0.94; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Multiple factors +1.04 29%
Points per game 0.5 → 2.25
Results ▲ Moderate evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-28

Toulouse's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.50 to 2.00 (+300%); the previous-season baseline is 1.32; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +1.71 50%
Points per game 0.5 → 2.0
Results ▲ Limited evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-28

Marseille's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.75 to 2.25 (+200%); the previous-season baseline is 1.74; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +1.15 35%
Points per game 0.75 → 2.25
Results vs underlying ▼ Moderate evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-28

Le Havre's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 8 matches, points per game (0.25) vs expected points per game (1.06): gap -0.81.

Primary driver Finishing -0.46 91%
Points vs expected points 1.06 → 0.25