What this page answers
A side-by-side look at both teams' last five matches: attack, defence, running and availability. It explains where each side has an edge before kickoff; it is not a win/draw/loss prediction.
The takeaway
Mainz 05 have the stronger underlying attack/defence.
- Underlying goal difference (expected goals for minus against): Mainz 05 +0.90, Werder Bremen -0.01.
- Attack: Mainz 05 xG per match 2.54, 17.0 shots, 3.5 big chances created; Werder Bremen xG per match 1.57, 13.8 shots, 2.5 big chances created.
- Defence: expected goals conceded per match Mainz 05 1.64, Werder Bremen 1.58; shots on target faced 7.5 vs 10.5, big chances faced 2.0 vs 2.5.
Each team's clearest edge
Home edge
xG per match
2.54
vs 1.57
· Edge 38.2%
Shots faced per match
11.0
vs 16.5
· Edge 33.3%
Big chances created per match
3.5
vs 2.5
· Edge 28.6%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Away edge
Goals conceded per match
1.60
vs 2.00
· Edge 20.0%
xGA per match
1.58
vs 1.64
· Edge 3.5%
Largest relative gaps among the displayed metrics.
Head-to-head data
Mainz 05
|
Metric |
Werder Bremen
|
|---|---|---|
| Results | ||
| 1.80 | Points per game | 1.80 |
| 2.80 | Goals per match | 2.20 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per match | 1.60 |
| 1.93 | Expected points per game | 1.36 |
| Attack | ||
| 2.54 | xG per match | 1.57 |
| 17.0 | Shots per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 13.8 |
| 10.5 | Shots on target per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 9.8 |
| 3.5 | Big chances created per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 2.5 |
| 50.0% | Possession 4 / 4 matches with data | 42.8% |
| 6.0 | Deep completions per match | 9.4 |
| Defence | ||
| 1.64 | xGA per match | 1.58 |
| 11.0 | Shots faced per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 16.5 |
| 7.5 | Shots on target faced per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 10.5 |
| 2.0 | Big chances faced per match 4 / 4 matches with data | 2.5 |
| 7.0 | Deep completions allowed per match | 10.0 |
| Running & pressing | ||
| — | Distance covered per match (km) 0 / 0 matches with data | — |
| — | Sprints per match 0 / 0 matches with data | — |
| 22.0 | Pressing value (lower is stronger) | 19.0 |
Highlighted values are the stronger side. For goals conceded, shots faced and the pressing value, lower is better.
Injuries & absences
Mainz 05 4
- Dominik Kohr Injury Expected back early January 2027
- Otto Ruoppi Injury Expected back early November 2026
- Robin Zentner Injury Expected return: A few weeks
- Silas Katompa Mvumpa Injury Expected back early January 2027
Werder Bremen 8
- Felix Agu Injury Expected back late October 2026
- Jens Stage Injury Expected back late October 2026
- Justin Njinmah Injury Expected back late October 2026
- Keke Topp Injury Expected back early January 2027
- Moussa N'Diaye Injury Expected back late October 2026
- Salim Musah Injury Expected back early January 2027
- Senne Lynen Injury Expected back in about 1-2 weeks
- Skelly Alvero Injury Expected back late October 2026
Latest pre-match snapshot; coverage varies by league.
Limitations
Based on 10 recent matches (10 with expected-goals data).
- Injury snapshots start from 2026-09-17; earlier absences are not reflected.