Premier League Round 6 2026-10-12 · 19:00 UTC finished
Coventry (home)
VS Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry
Newcastle United (away)
Prediction
20% Coventry (home)
27% Draw
53% Newcastle United (away) Model favorite
Expected goals 1.02 — 1.58 Over 2.5 goals: 48% Both teams to score: 51%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Coventry Newcastle United
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 1.050.97
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 1.881.86
Sample size (matches with xG data) 44
Rest days since last match 2323
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) 23.4 9.6
Matches in the last 7 days 00
Matches in the next 7 days 22
Travel to this match (km) 60281

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability is below 70%; in backtests matches in this band end as predicted about 53.4% of the time.

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Coventry

  • injured Aurèle Amenda return: Mid October 2026
  • injured Haji Wright return: Early November 2026
  • injured Josh Eccles return: Mid October 2026
  • injured Kaine Kesler-Hayden return: doubtful
  • injured Luke Woolfenden return: Mid October 2026
  • suspended Taiwo Awoniyi return: Mid October 2026

Newcastle United

  • injured Anthony Elanga return: Mid October 2026
  • injured Ewen Jaouen return: Early December 2026
  • injured Jacob Ramsey return: doubtful
  • injured Valentino Livramento return: doubtful

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Coventry 0 · 0 0 draws · 0 Newcastle United

Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: available Season context: available