La Liga Round 9 2026-10-19 · 19:00 UTC finished
Prediction
42% Getafe (home)
31% Draw
27% Rayo Vallecano (away)
Expected goals 1.24 — 1.11 Over 2.5 goals: 42% Both teams to score: 48%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Getafe Rayo Vallecano
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 0.561.23
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 1.251.96
Sample size (matches with xG data) 55
Rest days since last match 930
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) 15.2 8.8
Matches in the last 7 days 10
Matches in the next 7 days 22
Travel to this match (km) 505325

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability for this match is below 50% (backtest hit rate for this band is 42.7%%).

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Getafe

  • injured Christantus Uche return: Out for season
  • injured Iván Azon return: doubtful
  • injured Juanmi return: doubtful
  • injured Orel Mangala return: doubtful
  • injured Zaid Abner Romero return: Late October 2026

Rayo Vallecano

  • injured Andrei Ratiu return: Late October 2026
  • injured Augusto Batalla return: Early January 2027
  • injured Luiz Felipe return: Out for season

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Getafe 5 · 9 9 draws · 14 Rayo Vallecano

DateHome ScoreAway
2026-05-03Getafe 0 - 2Rayo Vallecano
2026-01-02Rayo Vallecano 1 - 1Getafe
2025-05-02Rayo Vallecano 1 - 0Getafe
2024-08-24Getafe 0 - 0Rayo Vallecano
2024-04-13Rayo Vallecano 0 - 0Getafe
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: available Season context: available