Premier League Round 7 2026-10-19 · 19:00 UTC finished
Tottenham (home)
VS Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Coventry (away)
Prediction
50% Tottenham (home) Model favorite
28% Draw
22% Coventry (away)
Expected goals 1.67 — 1.1 Over 2.5 goals: 52% Both teams to score: 54%

Model: history/v2-w1460-r150. Probabilities are produced by our own model from public match data. They are not odds and not betting advice.

Why — recent form

"—" means the number is not available in our data; we never fill gaps with zeros. Recent form covers only matches with expected-goals data, which may be fewer than the team's actual recent fixtures.

Metric Tottenham Coventry
Recent xG (attack, per-match avg) 1.011.12
Recent xGA (defence, per-match avg) 1.481.87
Sample size (matches with xG data) 55
Rest days since last match 97
Season pressing (PPDA, lower = more intense) 7.8 23.4
Matches in the last 7 days 11
Matches in the next 7 days 22
Travel to this match (km) 256136

What could go against this prediction

The model's top probability for this match is below 50% (backtest hit rate for this band is 42.7%%).

Injuries & suspensions

Latest pre-match snapshot from our data source; availability varies by league.

Tottenham

  • injured Lucas Bergvall return: Late October 2026
  • injured Mykhaylo Mudryk return: Late October 2026
  • injured Pedro Porro return: Late October 2026
  • injured Sávio return: Early November 2026
  • injured Wilson Odobert return: Early November 2026
  • injured Xavi Simons return: Early February 2027
  • suspended Rodrigo Bentancur return: Mid October 2026

Coventry

  • injured Aurèle Amenda return: Late October 2026
  • injured Haji Wright return: Early November 2026
  • injured Josh Eccles return: Late October 2026
  • injured Luke Woolfenden return: Mid October 2026

Head to head

All-time (per our source): Tottenham 2 · 0 0 draws · 0 Coventry

DateHome ScoreAway
2024-09-18Coventry City 1 - 2Tottenham Hotspur
2013-01-05Tottenham Hotspur 3 - 0Coventry City
Ask AI about this match

Answers are generated from the model probabilities and the published evidence on this page only — the AI cannot see anything else and cannot change the probabilities.

How predictions are made

Probabilities are generated by our own statistical model from public match data. AI is used only to explain the evidence and analysis.

Data coverage

Model probabilities: available Recent xG form: available Injuries & suspensions: available Head to head: available Pressing baseline: available Season context: available