Football Insights

Match data Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-10-27

Aston Villa vs Fulham: what the data says

Home last five: 2.00 points, 1.47 xG for, 1.80 against per game. Away: 1.60 / 1.45 / 1.14.

Match data Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-10-27

Bournemouth vs Leeds: what the data says

Home last five: 1.40 points, 2.42 xG for, 0.88 against per game. Away: 1.20 / 1.41 / 1.27.

Match data Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-10-27

Brentford vs Nottingham Forest: what the data says

Home last five: 1.20 points, 1.42 xG for, 1.75 against per game. Away: 0.80 / 2.28 / 1.16.

Match data Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-10-27

Chelsea vs Manchester United: what the data says

Home last five: 1.40 points, 1.11 xG for, 1.50 against per game. Away: 0.60 / 1.17 / 1.77.

Match data Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-10-27

Hull vs Ipswich: what the data says

Home last five: 0.60 points, 1.31 xG for, 1.87 against per game. Away: 1.40 / 1.32 / 2.41.

Match data Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-10-27

Manchester City vs Brighton: what the data says

Home last five: 2.40 points, 2.34 xG for, 1.37 against per game. Away: 2.40 / 2.02 / 1.01.

Match data Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-10-27

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace: what the data says

Home last five: 1.60 points, 1.29 xG for, 1.16 against per game. Away: 0.80 / 1.39 / 2.09.

Match data Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-10-27

Liverpool vs Arsenal: what the data says

Home last five: 2.00 points, 1.34 xG for, 1.13 against per game. Away: 2.40 / 1.75 / 1.37.

Match data Moderate evidence New Premier League 2026-10-27

Newcastle United vs Everton: what the data says

Home last five: 1.20 points, 1.32 xG for, 1.84 against per game. Away: 1.00 / 1.65 / 1.45.

Results ▲ Limited evidence New Ligue 1 2026-10-27

Marseille's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.75 to 2.25 (+200%); the previous-season baseline is 1.74; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +1.15 35%

Points per game 0.75 → 2.25

Attack ▲ Limited evidence New Serie A 2026-10-27

Atalanta's attacking output has jumped

Over the last 4 matches xG per match moved from 0.84 to 2.41 (+188%); the previous-season baseline is 1.81; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality +1.25 79%

xG per match 0.84 → 2.41

Attack ▲ Limited evidence New Bundesliga 2026-10-27

Augsburg's attacking output has jumped

Over the last 3 matches xG per match moved from 1.01 to 2.57 (+155%); the previous-season baseline is 1.51; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot volume +0.93 65%

xG per match 1.01 → 2.57

Defense ▼ Limited evidence New La Liga 2026-10-27

Osasuna's defensive numbers are sliding

Over the last 4 matches xGA per match moved from 1.05 to 2.34 (+123%); the previous-season baseline is 1.36; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shots faced -1.33 82%

xGA per match 1.05 → 2.34

Attack ▲ Limited evidence Updated Bundesliga 2026-10-27

Paderborn's attacking output has jumped

Over the last 3 matches xG per match moved from 0.80 to 1.61 (+102%); the previous-season baseline is 1.13; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality +0.51 63%

xG per match 0.8 → 1.61

Results vs underlying ▲ Moderate evidence New Serie A 2026-10-27

Frosinone are getting results beyond their underlying numbers

Over the last 8 matches, points per game (1.75) vs expected points per game (0.95): gap +0.80.

Primary driver Goalkeeping & opponent finishing +0.96 68%

Points vs expected points 0.95 → 1.75

Results vs underlying ▼ Moderate evidence Updated Ligue 1 2026-10-27

Le Havre's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 8 matches, points per game (0.25) vs expected points per game (1.06): gap -0.81.

Primary driver Finishing -0.46 91%

Points vs expected points 1.06 → 0.25

Results vs underlying ▼ Moderate evidence New Premier League 2026-10-27

Nottingham Forest's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 8 matches, points per game (0.75) vs expected points per game (1.90): gap -1.15.

Primary driver Finishing -1.22 91%

Points vs expected points 1.9 → 0.75

Results vs underlying ▲ Moderate evidence Updated La Liga 2026-10-27

Real Sociedad are getting results beyond their underlying numbers

Over the last 8 matches, points per game (2.38) vs expected points per game (1.51): gap +0.86.

Primary driver Finishing +0.43 95%

Points vs expected points 1.51 → 2.38