Football Insights

Results ▲ Limited evidence New Premier League 2026-10-20

Aston Villa's results have picked up

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 0.33 to 2.33 (+600%); the previous-season baseline is 1.71; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot volume +0.95 34%

Points per game 0.33 → 2.33

Results ▲ Limited evidence New La Liga 2026-10-20

Elche's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.25 to 1.25 (+400%); the previous-season baseline is 1.13; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Goalkeeping & opponent finishing +1.36 36%

Points per game 0.25 → 1.25

Results ▲ Moderate evidence New La Liga 2026-10-20

Celta Vigo's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.50 to 2.00 (+300%); the previous-season baseline is 1.42; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality faced +1.19 49%

Points per game 0.5 → 2.0

Defense ▼ Limited evidence New Bundesliga 2026-10-20

RB Leipzig's defensive numbers are sliding

Over the last 3 matches xGA per match moved from 0.86 to 3.14 (+262%); the previous-season baseline is 1.57; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality faced -1.62 71%

xGA per match 0.86 → 3.14

Results ▲ Limited evidence New Ligue 1 2026-10-20

Toulouse's results have picked up

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 0.67 to 2.33 (+250%); the previous-season baseline is 1.32; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +1.3 40%

Points per game 0.67 → 2.33

Attack ▲ Limited evidence New Bundesliga 2026-10-20

Hamburger SV's attacking output has jumped

Over the last 3 matches xG per match moved from 0.62 to 1.75 (+181%); the previous-season baseline is 1.29; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality +0.51 53%

xG per match 0.62 → 1.75

Attack ▲ Limited evidence New Bundesliga 2026-10-20

Paderborn's attacking output has jumped

Over the last 3 matches xG per match moved from 0.58 to 1.60 (+177%); the previous-season baseline is 1.13; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality +0.79 77%

xG per match 0.58 → 1.6

Attack ▲ Moderate evidence New La Liga 2026-10-20

Atletico Madrid's attacking output has jumped

Over the last 4 matches xG per match moved from 1.20 to 2.83 (+136%); the previous-season baseline is 1.79; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality +1.08 66%

xG per match 1.2 → 2.83

Results ▲ Limited evidence New Premier League 2026-10-20

Brighton's results have picked up

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 1.33 to 3.00 (+125%); the previous-season baseline is 1.40; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Multiple factors +0.85 27%

Points per game 1.33 → 3.0

Results ▲ Limited evidence New Ligue 1 2026-10-20

Paris Saint Germain's results have picked up

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 1.33 to 3.00 (+125%); the previous-season baseline is 2.23; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality +1.37 32%

Points per game 1.33 → 3.0

Results vs underlying ▲ Limited evidence New Serie A 2026-10-20

Cagliari are getting results beyond their underlying numbers

Over the last 6 matches, points per game (2.17) vs expected points per game (1.01): gap +1.16.

Primary driver Goalkeeping & opponent finishing +1.36 97%

Points vs expected points 1.01 → 2.17

Defense ▼ Limited evidence New Serie A 2026-10-20

Monza's defensive numbers are sliding

Over the last 3 matches xGA per match moved from 1.06 to 2.15 (+102%); the previous-season baseline is 1.72; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality faced -0.89 87%

xGA per match 1.06 → 2.15

Results vs underlying ▼ Limited evidence New Bundesliga 2026-10-20

Borussia M.Gladbach's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 6 matches, points per game (0.00) vs expected points per game (0.70): gap -0.70.

Primary driver Goalkeeping & opponent finishing -0.65 75%

Points vs expected points 0.7 → 0.0

Results ▼ Limited evidence New Premier League 2026-10-20

Sunderland's results have dipped

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 1.33 to 0.00 (-100%); the previous-season baseline is 1.42; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shots faced -1.08 31%

Points per game 1.33 → 0.0

Results ▼ Limited evidence New Ligue 1 2026-10-20

Troyes's results have dipped

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 1.00 to 0.00 (-100%); the previous-season baseline is 0.63; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Multiple factors -0.63 29%

Points per game 1.0 → 0.0

Results ▼ Limited evidence New Serie A 2026-10-20

Udinese's results have dipped

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 1.00 to 0.00 (-100%); the previous-season baseline is 1.32; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Multiple factors -1.57 24%

Points per game 1.0 → 0.0

Results ▼ Limited evidence New Serie A 2026-10-20

Sassuolo's results have dipped

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 2.33 to 0.33 (-86%); the previous-season baseline is 1.29; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing -0.96 37%

Points per game 2.33 → 0.33

Results vs underlying ▼ Limited evidence New Ligue 1 2026-10-20

Le Havre's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 7 matches, points per game (0.29) vs expected points per game (0.92): gap -0.63.

Primary driver Finishing -0.57 61%

Points vs expected points 0.92 → 0.29