Football Insights

Results ▲ Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-10-27

Aston Villa's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.25 to 2.50 (+900%); the previous-season baseline is 1.71; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality faced +0.75 34%

Points per game 0.25 → 2.5

Results ▲ Limited evidence New Serie A 2026-10-27

Bologna's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.25 to 1.75 (+600%); the previous-season baseline is 1.47; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +0.94 34%

Points per game 0.25 → 1.75

Results ▲ Limited evidence New Premier League 2026-10-27

Fulham's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.25 to 1.75 (+600%); the previous-season baseline is 1.37; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality faced +1.29 68%

Points per game 0.25 → 1.75

Results ▲ Limited evidence New Ligue 1 2026-10-27

Nice's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.50 to 2.25 (+350%); the previous-season baseline is 0.94; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Multiple factors +1.04 29%

Points per game 0.5 → 2.25

Results ▲ Moderate evidence Updated La Liga 2026-10-27

Elche's results have picked up

Over the last 5 matches points per game moved from 0.40 to 1.60 (+300%); the previous-season baseline is 1.13; 4 of 5 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Goalkeeping & opponent finishing +1.47 37%

Points per game 0.4 → 1.6

Results ▲ Moderate evidence Updated Ligue 1 2026-10-27

Toulouse's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.50 to 2.00 (+300%); the previous-season baseline is 1.32; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +1.71 50%

Points per game 0.5 → 2.0

Results ▲ Limited evidence New Premier League 2026-10-27

Tottenham's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.50 to 1.75 (+250%); the previous-season baseline is 1.08; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +1.7 48%

Points per game 0.5 → 1.75

Results ▲ Moderate evidence New Serie A 2026-10-27

Torino's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.75 to 2.50 (+233%); the previous-season baseline is 1.18; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +0.97 34%

Points per game 0.75 → 2.5

Defense ▼ Limited evidence New Bundesliga 2026-10-27

Bayer Leverkusen's defensive numbers are sliding

Over the last 3 matches xGA per match moved from 0.67 to 2.19 (+225%); the previous-season baseline is 1.50; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shots faced -0.78 52%

xGA per match 0.67 → 2.19

Results ▲ Moderate evidence Updated La Liga 2026-10-27

Celta Vigo's results have picked up

Over the last 5 matches points per game moved from 0.60 to 1.80 (+200%); the previous-season baseline is 1.42; 5 of 5 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality faced +0.98 48%

Points per game 0.6 → 1.8

Results ▲ Limited evidence New Ligue 1 2026-10-27

Marseille's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.75 to 2.25 (+200%); the previous-season baseline is 1.74; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +1.15 35%

Points per game 0.75 → 2.25

Attack ▲ Limited evidence New Serie A 2026-10-27

Atalanta's attacking output has jumped

Over the last 4 matches xG per match moved from 0.84 to 2.41 (+188%); the previous-season baseline is 1.81; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality +1.25 79%

xG per match 0.84 → 2.41

Attack ▲ Limited evidence New Bundesliga 2026-10-27

Augsburg's attacking output has jumped

Over the last 3 matches xG per match moved from 1.01 to 2.57 (+155%); the previous-season baseline is 1.51; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot volume +0.93 65%

xG per match 1.01 → 2.57

Defense ▼ Limited evidence New La Liga 2026-10-27

Osasuna's defensive numbers are sliding

Over the last 4 matches xGA per match moved from 1.05 to 2.34 (+123%); the previous-season baseline is 1.36; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shots faced -1.33 82%

xGA per match 1.05 → 2.34

Attack ▲ Limited evidence Updated Bundesliga 2026-10-27

Paderborn's attacking output has jumped

Over the last 3 matches xG per match moved from 0.80 to 1.61 (+102%); the previous-season baseline is 1.13; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality +0.51 63%

xG per match 0.8 → 1.61

Results vs underlying ▲ Moderate evidence New Serie A 2026-10-27

Frosinone are getting results beyond their underlying numbers

Over the last 8 matches, points per game (1.75) vs expected points per game (0.95): gap +0.80.

Primary driver Goalkeeping & opponent finishing +0.96 68%

Points vs expected points 0.95 → 1.75

Results vs underlying ▼ Moderate evidence Updated Ligue 1 2026-10-27

Le Havre's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 8 matches, points per game (0.25) vs expected points per game (1.06): gap -0.81.

Primary driver Finishing -0.46 91%

Points vs expected points 1.06 → 0.25

Results vs underlying ▼ Moderate evidence New Premier League 2026-10-27

Nottingham Forest's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 8 matches, points per game (0.75) vs expected points per game (1.90): gap -1.15.

Primary driver Finishing -1.22 91%

Points vs expected points 1.9 → 0.75