Football Insights

What is changing across the big five leagues — each date lists only new or materially updated signals, with the evidence and counter evidence behind every claim.
Daily archive → Player Watch → Insight date · 2026-11-02 Data through 2026-11-02 Showing 13 of 13 ← Previous day
New & updated · 12 All changes · 13
All insights Premier League La Liga Bundesliga Serie A Ligue 1 Player Watch → Team changes Daily player changes Match data
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Match data

Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-11-02

Lorient vs Brest: what the data says

Home last five: 1.60 points, 1.01 xG for, 0.80 against per game. Away: 0.80 / 1.70 / 1.21.
Match data Moderate evidence Updated Ligue 1 2026-11-02

Toulouse vs Strasbourg: what the data says

Home last five: 1.80 points, 1.63 xG for, 1.00 against per game. Away: 0.60 / 1.26 / 1.37.
Match data Moderate evidence Updated Ligue 1 2026-11-02

Auxerre vs Paris FC: what the data says

Home last five: 1.40 points, 1.07 xG for, 1.76 against per game. Away: 1.80 / 1.62 / 0.98.
Match data Moderate evidence Updated Ligue 1 2026-11-02

Paris Saint Germain vs Troyes: what the data says

Home last five: 3.00 points, 3.04 xG for, 1.51 against per game. Away: 0.80 / 1.23 / 1.26.
Match data Moderate evidence Updated Ligue 1 2026-11-02

Angers vs Nice: what the data says

Home last five: 0.80 points, 1.25 xG for, 2.45 against per game. Away: 2.40 / 1.82 / 1.82.
Match data Moderate evidence Updated Ligue 1 2026-11-02

Brest vs Lyon: what the data says

Home last five: 0.80 points, 1.70 xG for, 1.21 against per game. Away: 1.80 / 1.94 / 1.06.
Match data Moderate evidence Updated Ligue 1 2026-11-02

Le Havre vs Lorient: what the data says

Home last five: 0.00 points, 1.80 xG for, 2.17 against per game. Away: 1.60 / 1.01 / 0.80.
Match data Moderate evidence Updated Ligue 1 2026-11-02

Lens vs Marseille: what the data says

Home last five: 1.80 points, 1.16 xG for, 1.37 against per game. Away: 1.80 / 1.87 / 2.55.
Match data Moderate evidence Updated Ligue 1 2026-11-02

Rennes vs Lille: what the data says

Home last five: 1.20 points, 2.16 xG for, 2.50 against per game. Away: 1.60 / 1.61 / 1.17.

Team changes

Results ▲ Moderate evidence Updated Ligue 1 2026-11-02

Toulouse's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.50 to 2.00 (+300%); the previous-season baseline is 1.32; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +1.71 50%
Points per game 0.5 → 2.0
Results ▲ Limited evidence Updated Ligue 1 2026-11-02

Marseille's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.75 to 2.25 (+200%); the previous-season baseline is 1.74; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +1.15 35%
Points per game 0.75 → 2.25
Results ▲ Limited evidence Updated Ligue 1 2026-11-02

Nice's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 1.00 to 2.25 (+125%); the previous-season baseline is 0.94; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +1.05 50%
Points per game 1.0 → 2.25
Results vs underlying ▼ Moderate evidence Updated Ligue 1 2026-11-02

Le Havre's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 8 matches, points per game (0.25) vs expected points per game (1.06): gap -0.81.

Primary driver Finishing -0.47 61%
Points vs expected points 1.06 → 0.25