Football Insights

What is changing across the big five leagues — each date lists only new or materially updated signals, with the evidence and counter evidence behind every claim.
Daily archive → Player Watch → Insight date · 2026-10-21 Data through 2026-10-21 Showing 13 of 13 ← Previous day Next day →
New & updated · 0 All changes · 13
All insights Premier League La Liga Bundesliga Serie A Ligue 1 Player Watch → Team changes Daily player changes Match data
2026-10-23 16 2026-10-22 24 2026-10-21 3 2026-10-20 92

Match data

Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-21

Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest: what the data says

Home last five: 1.20 points, 1.27 xG for, 2.01 against per game. Away: 0.80 / 1.89 / 1.29.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-21

Arsenal vs Everton: what the data says

Home last five: 2.40 points, 1.85 xG for, 1.31 against per game. Away: 1.20 / 1.72 / 1.17.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-21

Aston Villa vs Manchester City: what the data says

Home last five: 1.60 points, 1.67 xG for, 1.51 against per game. Away: 3.00 / 2.32 / 1.53.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-21

Chelsea vs Tottenham: what the data says

Home last five: 1.40 points, 1.10 xG for, 1.87 against per game. Away: 0.60 / 1.42 / 1.20.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-21

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United: what the data says

Home last five: 1.40 points, 1.46 xG for, 2.40 against per game. Away: 0.80 / 1.22 / 1.77.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-21

Hull vs Brentford: what the data says

Home last five: 0.60 points, 1.09 xG for, 1.86 against per game. Away: 1.20 / 1.40 / 1.80.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-21

Liverpool vs Brighton: what the data says

Home last five: 2.00 points, 1.23 xG for, 0.98 against per game. Away: 2.60 / 2.20 / 1.20.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-21

Manchester United vs Bournemouth: what the data says

Home last five: 0.80 points, 1.18 xG for, 1.47 against per game. Away: 1.00 / 2.24 / 0.86.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-21

Sunderland vs Leeds: what the data says

Home last five: 0.20 points, 1.66 xG for, 2.45 against per game. Away: 1.20 / 1.64 / 1.51.

Team changes

Results ▲ Limited evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-21

Aston Villa's results have picked up

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 0.33 to 2.33 (+600%); the previous-season baseline is 1.71; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot volume +0.95 34%
Points per game 0.33 → 2.33
Results ▲ Limited evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-21

Brighton's results have picked up

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 1.33 to 3.00 (+125%); the previous-season baseline is 1.40; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Multiple factors +0.85 27%
Points per game 1.33 → 3.0
Results ▼ Limited evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-21

Sunderland's results have dipped

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 1.33 to 0.00 (-100%); the previous-season baseline is 1.42; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shots faced -1.08 31%
Points per game 1.33 → 0.0
Results vs underlying ▼ Limited evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-21

Tottenham's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 6 matches, points per game (0.50) vs expected points per game (1.28): gap -0.78.

Primary driver Finishing -0.81 82%
Points vs expected points 1.28 → 0.5