Football Insights

What is changing across the big five leagues — each date lists only new or materially updated signals, with the evidence and counter evidence behind every claim.
Daily archive → Player Watch → Insight date · 2026-10-21 Data through 2026-10-21 Showing 14 of 14 ← Previous day Next day →
New & updated · 2 All changes · 14
All insights Premier League La Liga Bundesliga Serie A Ligue 1 Player Watch → Team changes Daily player changes Match data
2026-10-23 16 2026-10-22 24 2026-10-21 3 2026-10-20 92

Match data

Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-21

Brest vs Nice: what the data says

Home last five: 1.40 points, 1.88 xG for, 1.39 against per game. Away: 1.40 / 1.30 / 1.39.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-21

Lens vs Paris FC: what the data says

Home last five: 1.40 points, 1.54 xG for, 1.45 against per game. Away: 2.00 / 1.77 / 1.17.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-21

Toulouse vs Troyes: what the data says

Home last five: 1.60 points, 2.12 xG for, 1.15 against per game. Away: 0.00 / 1.38 / 2.21.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-21

Angers vs Lorient: what the data says

Home last five: 0.80 points, 1.54 xG for, 2.34 against per game. Away: 2.00 / 1.01 / 0.96.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-21

Marseille vs Le Havre: what the data says

Home last five: 1.20 points, 1.85 xG for, 2.68 against per game. Away: 0.20 / 1.45 / 1.92.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-21

Monaco vs Lille: what the data says

Home last five: 1.60 points, 0.93 xG for, 1.56 against per game. Away: 2.00 / 1.68 / 1.38.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-21

Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: what the data says

Home last five: 2.40 points, 3.02 xG for, 1.45 against per game. Away: 2.00 / 1.93 / 1.05.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-21

Rennes vs Strasbourg: what the data says

Home last five: 1.80 points, 2.17 xG for, 2.21 against per game. Away: 0.80 / 1.23 / 1.65.
Match data Moderate evidence New Ligue 1 2026-10-21

Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain: what the data says

Home last five: 0.20 points, 1.45 xG for, 1.92 against per game. Away: 2.40 / 3.02 / 1.45.
Match data Moderate evidence New Ligue 1 2026-10-21

Lille vs Lens: what the data says

Home last five: 2.00 points, 1.68 xG for, 1.38 against per game. Away: 1.40 / 1.54 / 1.45.

Team changes

Results ▲ Limited evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-21

Toulouse's results have picked up

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 0.67 to 2.33 (+250%); the previous-season baseline is 1.32; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +1.3 40%
Points per game 0.67 → 2.33
Results ▲ Limited evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-21

Paris Saint Germain's results have picked up

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 1.33 to 3.00 (+125%); the previous-season baseline is 2.23; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality +1.37 32%
Points per game 1.33 → 3.0
Results ▼ Limited evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-21

Troyes's results have dipped

Over the last 3 matches points per game moved from 1.00 to 0.00 (-100%); the previous-season baseline is 0.63; 3 of 3 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Multiple factors -0.63 29%
Points per game 1.0 → 0.0
Results vs underlying ▼ Limited evidence Ongoing Ligue 1 2026-10-21

Le Havre's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 7 matches, points per game (0.29) vs expected points per game (0.92): gap -0.63.

Primary driver Finishing -0.57 61%
Points vs expected points 0.92 → 0.29