Football Insights

What is changing across the big five leagues — each date lists only new or materially updated signals, with the evidence and counter evidence behind every claim.
Daily archive → Player Watch → Insight date · 2026-10-30 Data through 2026-10-30 Showing 18 of 22 ← Previous day
New & updated · 5 All changes · 22
All insights Premier League La Liga Bundesliga Serie A Ligue 1 Player Watch → Team changes Daily player changes Match data
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Match data

Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-30

Aston Villa vs Fulham: what the data says

Home last five: 2.00 points, 1.47 xG for, 1.80 against per game. Away: 1.60 / 1.45 / 1.14.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-30

Bournemouth vs Leeds: what the data says

Home last five: 1.40 points, 2.42 xG for, 0.88 against per game. Away: 1.20 / 1.41 / 1.27.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-30

Brentford vs Nottingham Forest: what the data says

Home last five: 1.20 points, 1.42 xG for, 1.75 against per game. Away: 0.80 / 2.28 / 1.16.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-30

Chelsea vs Manchester United: what the data says

Home last five: 1.40 points, 1.11 xG for, 1.50 against per game. Away: 0.60 / 1.17 / 1.77.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-30

Hull vs Ipswich: what the data says

Home last five: 0.60 points, 1.31 xG for, 1.87 against per game. Away: 1.40 / 1.32 / 2.41.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-30

Manchester City vs Brighton: what the data says

Home last five: 2.40 points, 2.34 xG for, 1.37 against per game. Away: 2.40 / 2.02 / 1.01.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-30

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace: what the data says

Home last five: 1.60 points, 1.29 xG for, 1.16 against per game. Away: 0.80 / 1.39 / 2.09.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-30

Liverpool vs Arsenal: what the data says

Home last five: 2.00 points, 1.34 xG for, 1.13 against per game. Away: 2.40 / 1.75 / 1.37.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-30

Newcastle United vs Everton: what the data says

Home last five: 1.20 points, 1.32 xG for, 1.84 against per game. Away: 1.00 / 1.65 / 1.45.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-30

Arsenal vs Hull: what the data says

Home last five: 2.40 points, 1.75 xG for, 1.37 against per game. Away: 0.60 / 1.31 / 1.87.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-30

Fulham vs Newcastle United: what the data says

Home last five: 1.60 points, 1.45 xG for, 1.14 against per game. Away: 1.20 / 1.32 / 1.84.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-30

Leeds vs Tottenham: what the data says

Home last five: 1.20 points, 1.41 xG for, 1.27 against per game. Away: 1.60 / 1.29 / 1.16.
Match data Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-30

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: what the data says

Home last five: 0.80 points, 2.28 xG for, 1.16 against per game. Away: 2.40 / 2.34 / 1.37.
Match data Moderate evidence New Premier League 2026-10-30

Brighton vs Brentford: what the data says

Home last five: 2.40 points, 2.02 xG for, 1.01 against per game. Away: 1.20 / 1.42 / 1.75.

Team changes

Results ▲ Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-30

Aston Villa's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.25 to 2.50 (+900%); the previous-season baseline is 1.71; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality faced +0.75 34%
Points per game 0.25 → 2.5
Results ▲ Limited evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-30

Fulham's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.25 to 1.75 (+600%); the previous-season baseline is 1.37; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality faced +1.29 68%
Points per game 0.25 → 1.75
Results ▲ Limited evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-30

Tottenham's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.50 to 1.75 (+250%); the previous-season baseline is 1.08; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +1.7 48%
Points per game 0.5 → 1.75
Results vs underlying ▼ Moderate evidence Ongoing Premier League 2026-10-30

Nottingham Forest's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 8 matches, points per game (0.75) vs expected points per game (1.90): gap -1.15.

Primary driver Finishing -1.22 91%
Points vs expected points 1.9 → 0.75
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