Football Insights

What is changing across the big five leagues — each date lists only new or materially updated signals, with the evidence and counter evidence behind every claim.
Daily archive → Player Watch → Insight date · 2026-11-02 Data through 2026-11-02 Showing 13 of 13 ← Previous day
New & updated · 13 All changes · 14
All insights Premier League La Liga Bundesliga Serie A Ligue 1 Player Watch → Team changes Daily player changes Match data
2026-11-02 80 2026-11-01 2 2026-10-31 0 2026-10-30 24 2026-10-29 17 2026-10-28 8 2026-10-27 89

Match data

Match data Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-11-02

Arsenal vs Hull: what the data says

Home last five: 2.40 points, 1.53 xG for, 1.20 against per game. Away: 0.60 / 1.07 / 1.96.
Match data Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-11-02

Fulham vs Newcastle United: what the data says

Home last five: 1.60 points, 1.82 xG for, 1.23 against per game. Away: 1.20 / 1.32 / 1.84.
Match data Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-11-02

Leeds vs Tottenham: what the data says

Home last five: 0.60 points, 1.15 xG for, 1.40 against per game. Away: 2.00 / 1.89 / 0.86.
Match data Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-11-02

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: what the data says

Home last five: 0.20 points, 1.91 xG for, 1.11 against per game. Away: 1.80 / 2.64 / 1.49.
Match data Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-11-02

Brighton vs Brentford: what the data says

Home last five: 2.40 points, 1.78 xG for, 1.34 against per game. Away: 1.60 / 1.43 / 1.43.
Match data Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-11-02

Crystal Palace vs Liverpool: what the data says

Home last five: 0.80 points, 1.23 xG for, 2.42 against per game. Away: 1.80 / 1.22 / 1.11.
Match data Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-11-02

Ipswich vs Bournemouth: what the data says

Home last five: 1.00 points, 1.25 xG for, 2.35 against per game. Away: 1.80 / 2.21 / 0.92.
Match data Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-11-02

Manchester United vs Aston Villa: what the data says

Home last five: 0.60 points, 1.26 xG for, 2.10 against per game. Away: 2.20 / 1.70 / 1.80.
Match data Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-11-02

Sunderland vs Chelsea: what the data says

Home last five: 0.20 points, 1.34 xG for, 2.15 against per game. Away: 1.80 / 1.42 / 1.42.

Team changes

Results ▲ Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-11-02

Tottenham's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.50 to 2.50 (+400%); the previous-season baseline is 1.08; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +1.19 42%
Points per game 0.5 → 2.5
Results ▲ Limited evidence Updated Premier League 2026-11-02

Fulham's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.50 to 1.75 (+250%); the previous-season baseline is 1.37; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shots faced +0.59 35%
Points per game 0.5 → 1.75
Results ▲ Limited evidence New Premier League 2026-11-02

Bournemouth's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.75 to 2.25 (+200%); the previous-season baseline is 1.50; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality +0.79 59%
Points per game 0.75 → 2.25
Results vs underlying ▼ Moderate evidence Updated Premier League 2026-11-02

Nottingham Forest's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 8 matches, points per game (0.75) vs expected points per game (1.88): gap -1.13.

Primary driver Finishing -1.26 86%
Points vs expected points 1.88 → 0.75

Still in play

1 insights on this date are unchanged from the previous edition. They remain active but are not repeated above.

Match data: 1 View all changes →