Team Observations

Results ▲ Moderate evidence Serie A 2026-11-02

Genoa's results have picked up

Over the last 5 matches points per game moved from 0.20 to 2.40 (+1100%); the previous-season baseline is 1.08; 4 of 5 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Goalkeeping & opponent finishing +0.94 41%

Points per game 0.2 → 2.4

Results ▲ Moderate evidence La Liga 2026-11-02

Elche's results have picked up

Over the last 5 matches points per game moved from 0.20 to 1.60 (+700%); the previous-season baseline is 1.13; 4 of 5 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Goalkeeping & opponent finishing +1.18 33%

Points per game 0.2 → 1.6

Results ▲ Moderate evidence Serie A 2026-11-02

Bologna's results have picked up

Over the last 5 matches points per game moved from 0.40 to 2.40 (+500%); the previous-season baseline is 1.47; 4 of 5 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +1.26 36%

Points per game 0.4 → 2.4

Results ▲ Moderate evidence Bundesliga 2026-11-02

Union Berlin's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.25 to 1.50 (+500%); the previous-season baseline is 1.15; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality faced +1.25 36%

Points per game 0.25 → 1.5

Results ▲ Moderate evidence Premier League 2026-11-02

Tottenham's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.50 to 2.50 (+400%); the previous-season baseline is 1.08; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +1.19 42%

Points per game 0.5 → 2.5

Results ▲ Moderate evidence Ligue 1 2026-11-02

Toulouse's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.50 to 2.00 (+300%); the previous-season baseline is 1.32; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +1.71 50%

Points per game 0.5 → 2.0

Attack ▲ Moderate evidence Serie A 2026-11-02

Atalanta's attacking output has jumped

Over the last 4 matches xG per match moved from 0.73 to 2.59 (+256%); the previous-season baseline is 1.81; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality +1.52 82%

xG per match 0.73 → 2.59

Results ▲ Limited evidence Premier League 2026-11-02

Fulham's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.50 to 1.75 (+250%); the previous-season baseline is 1.37; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shots faced +0.59 35%

Points per game 0.5 → 1.75

Results ▲ Limited evidence Premier League 2026-11-02

Bournemouth's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.75 to 2.25 (+200%); the previous-season baseline is 1.50; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality +0.79 59%

Points per game 0.75 → 2.25

Results ▲ Limited evidence Ligue 1 2026-11-02

Marseille's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 0.75 to 2.25 (+200%); the previous-season baseline is 1.74; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +1.15 35%

Points per game 0.75 → 2.25

Defense ▼ Moderate evidence Bundesliga 2026-11-02

Bayer Leverkusen's defensive numbers are sliding

Over the last 4 matches xGA per match moved from 0.86 to 2.41 (+182%); the previous-season baseline is 1.50; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shots faced -0.78 50%

xGA per match 0.86 → 2.41

Results ▲ Moderate evidence La Liga 2026-11-02

Celta Vigo's results have picked up

Over the last 5 matches points per game moved from 0.60 to 1.60 (+167%); the previous-season baseline is 1.42; 4 of 5 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality faced +0.74 48%

Points per game 0.6 → 1.6

Results ▲ Limited evidence Ligue 1 2026-11-02

Nice's results have picked up

Over the last 4 matches points per game moved from 1.00 to 2.25 (+125%); the previous-season baseline is 0.94; 3 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Finishing +1.05 50%

Points per game 1.0 → 2.25

Attack ▲ Moderate evidence La Liga 2026-11-02

Valencia's attacking output has jumped

Over the last 5 matches xG per match moved from 0.75 to 1.57 (+110%); the previous-season baseline is 1.42; 5 of 5 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality +0.56 68%

xG per match 0.75 → 1.57

Attack ▲ Moderate evidence Bundesliga 2026-11-02

Paderborn's attacking output has jumped

Over the last 4 matches xG per match moved from 0.77 to 1.42 (+85%); the previous-season baseline is 1.13; 4 of 4 matches moved the same way.

Primary driver Shot quality +0.37 57%

xG per match 0.77 → 1.42

Results vs underlying ▼ Moderate evidence Serie A 2026-11-02

Udinese's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 8 matches, points per game (0.12) vs expected points per game (0.71): gap -0.58.

Primary driver Finishing -0.26 78%

Points vs expected points 0.71 → 0.12

Results vs underlying ▼ Moderate evidence Ligue 1 2026-11-02

Le Havre's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 8 matches, points per game (0.25) vs expected points per game (1.06): gap -0.81.

Primary driver Finishing -0.47 61%

Points vs expected points 1.06 → 0.25

Results vs underlying ▼ Moderate evidence Premier League 2026-11-02

Nottingham Forest's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 8 matches, points per game (0.75) vs expected points per game (1.88): gap -1.13.

Primary driver Finishing -1.26 86%

Points vs expected points 1.88 → 0.75

Results vs underlying ▲ Moderate evidence La Liga 2026-11-02

Real Sociedad are getting results beyond their underlying numbers

Over the last 8 matches, points per game (2.38) vs expected points per game (1.51): gap +0.86.

Primary driver Finishing +0.43 95%

Points vs expected points 1.51 → 2.38

Results vs underlying ▼ Moderate evidence Bundesliga 2026-11-02

Borussia M.Gladbach's results are worse than their underlying numbers

Over the last 8 matches, points per game (0.50) vs expected points per game (0.98): gap -0.48.

Primary driver Goalkeeping & opponent finishing -0.38 57%

Points vs expected points 0.98 → 0.5